Irish investing slump

Irish property investors have had the world at their feet over the last few years, as Ireland experienced one of the biggest property booms in history - but now, those halcyon days are well and truly over and Irish investors are being crippled by the lack of liquidity in the market...

The downturn in Irish market conditions this year has far outweighed all expectations. The latest Property Outlook report carried out by Savills Ireland forecasts Irish spend on property (both home and abroad) this year will fall to £12.5 billion.

This is a whopping 60 per cent fall from the golden years back in 2006 and 2007, when spending was around £37.6 billion, hitting a high note with £45.4 billion in 2006.

Joan Henry, Head of Research at Savills Ireland, says that it is imperative that the Government and the banks take immediate action to solve the lack of liquidity that is crippling both the residential and commercial property markets.

"This 60 per cent drop has been a large enough fall, but this year's spend is actually down an estimated 73 per cent from the peak in 2006.

"The evidence of the huge decline in spending is clear across all sectors of the property market and is most obvious in the new homes area.

"The total spend on new homes is expected to fall from an estimated £19.2 billion in 2007 to just £5 billion this year.

"Spend in the Irish investment market is expected to be down as much as 75 per cent from last year's £1.6 billion. Spend on domestic land is expected to fall by a staggering 80 per cent.

"These numbers reflect both the fall in volumes of deals being done and also obviously a significant drop in the value of individual deals being done," added Ms Henry.

The development of new homes is also at a virtual standstill. Ms Henry adds, "We estimate that at most 25,000 new homes will be built next year.

"We expect that supply and demand factors have pushed prices close to the bottom and that by mid 2009, prices will have stabilised.

"What is needed then is a period of at least six months to a year of price stability to allow buyer confidence to be restored which will in turn increase activity levels," she finished.  

Angus Potterton, Managing Director at Savills Ireland says the Government and banking sector must act now in order to find a solution to the lack of liquidity.

"There are signs that something will be done to recapitalise the Irish banking sector but every day that goes by puts more companies out business, pushes up unemployment, reduces tax revenue and brings us deeper into recession.

"It is imperative that the Government and the banks take immediate action, not just for the 250,000 people in the property and construction sector but for the wider economy" he added.

What happens next?

Something drastic clearly needs to be done to return some liquidity to the market. The Irish Government is keen to get central banks to take decisive action to free up the liquidity situation and that should help to boost the property market.

Whilst the Savills report implies that the market may well bottom out in 2009, despite expectations for more hopeful times ahead and hopes that activity levels will pick up; they will be at ‘considerably lower values and volumes,' added Ms Henry.

It's not just property...

Recent research into Irish consumer behaviour by BT has found that 70 per cent of people have started looking more closely at their spending and 73 per cent believe they can make savings.

BT says it seems "staying in is the new going out" for the Irish, as people aim to cut back on spending money going out for meals.  

Nineteen per cent cited rising fuel costs as the biggest reason for scaling down spending, although inflation was also listed as a top concern.

Take-away coffee is set to take a dip in sales, especially in Mayo and Portlaoise where 36 per cent say they will cut it out altogether. Likewise, 25 per cent of Corkonians poled claimed they too will be giving the local coffee shop a miss. In general, 13 per cent said they plan to buy fewer takeaways or ready meals, and 10 per cent claim they intend to take their own lunch to work.

Picture by Grant Mitchell