Portugal's golden visas to bring in €600m this year?

Lisbon, Portugal, where home sales climbed 40 per cent last year  Photo: Chris Yunker

The country's association of estate agents, APEMIP, predicts that the scheme, which offers residency to non-EU buyers who invest a minimum of €500,000 in real estate, could attract €600 million in 2014.

The scheme has already been heralded as a success since its launch in late 2012, with 542 permits issued to buyers, generating €336 million worth of investment.

While the deputy prime minister and driver of the measure, Dr. Paulo Portas, has said that this year the value of investment in Portugal through golden visas should reach 500 million euros, AMEPIP president Luis Lima says it "could easily reach 600 million euros, so long as a sufficient promotion work is done with this programme abroad".

Chinese buyers account for 433 of the visas issued so far, notes The Portugal News, followed by Russia (23) and Brazil (14).

The optimistic forecast follows equally positive indicators from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors and Confidencial Imobiliario, whose latest joint report predicts an uptick in buyer interest.

The sales and lettings market both remained broadly stable in January 2014, but an increase in new buyer enquiries has pushed up sales expectations among Portuguese agents, with the national confidence index climbing to 16 from 6, the best reading since the survey began.

Prices are still falling, though, indicating that the market recovery is still a long way off. Nonetheless, continuing affordability and growing confidence could spark a significant growth in buyer interest from overseas, both from those looking for bargain holiday homes and wealthier buyers attracted by affordable luxury homes accompanied by visas.